Goals for Tonight

My goal for tonight is to do a better job of identifying WA/WB situations, and check based on them. I believe if you're in a way ahead/way behind situation, it's almost always better to check, because bets drive out the weaker hands and get the better hands to call/raise, which is not what you want. The biggest example of these hands are dry flops. One example which has provoked a good detailed conversation is the hand I posted in my last post, so I will use a similar example here.

Consider you have AKo, open raise on the BT, and get 3bet from the tight SB. You call and see a flop, which comes K72r, and it's checked to you. I think this is a great example of a WA/WB situation. Lets say that the SBs 3bet range here is TT+ AQ+... I use a lighter range than I normally would for a tightie(KK+ AK) because I'm a blind stealing mofo and I opened raised from the BT, which makes my raise look 100% like a steal. now if villain has TT-QQ, you are way ahead. They have only 2 outs that can help them, and otherwise you will with the hand. Similarly with AQ, yet they have 0 outs. If they have KK-AA, you are way behind, as only a K falling against AA will help you here (2 outs versus AA, and 0 outs against KK).

Basically, when the board is very dry, there are no draws, and draws are the big "chance" factor in poker. With no draws, the situation quickly becomes a WA/WB situation, and it's crucial to know how to play it. Because of this, I would check behind on the flop. Most likely they will not improve, and villain will be firing on the turn with almost his entire range here (barring a Q or J falling and he villain having TT). Then you can call his turn bet (very tricky to read IMO), and let him go first OOP on the river. If he bets, you can probably get away from the hand as TT-QQ isn't really firing again here, and if he checks you can value bet it and leave him confused.

I'll see if I can find some spots for this tonight, and if not I can always try to identify WA/WB situations.