Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Bad session today, but I did clear a $20 bonus!

Terrible session today. Wasn't about cards not holding up, although there were a few draws that didn't get there. More so it was quite the opposite from yesterday, in that everyone raised or called my cbets, and took me down on the turn. I'm not really in the mood to post hands now, so I'll just get on with it.

I am going to change my HUD for tomorrow in preperation for February; I'm adding "folds to CBet", and "Chance to CBet", whatever they're called. I definitely still have holes in my game with unchecked aggression (among plenty of other things obviously). I think I might spend tomorrow studying today's session before February, and getting pumped!! Now I'm in no mood though... sad what losing money can do to your drive.

Oh yeah, I hit the 10K hand mark too :)

Session: -$39 -- 594 Hands
Overall: $500.65-- +$193.80 -- 10007 hands

My goals in poker

Of course short term goals are to win money and move up, but I'm concentrating here on more longterm goals.

Someone asked me in a comment about what my ultimate (long term) goals are with poker. I think it's an interesting question, and can be better answered than by a simple "get better". I want to be as close to a perfect player and possible, and be able to defend all of my plays in retrospect. My definition of a perfect player is someone who takes all factors into an account before each decision he makes, all the way to the end of the hand. That means that I am thinking about stack size, and how my move would differ with stacks of 10/20/30/50/100/150/200/250+ BBs. I am thinking about every statistic that PAHUD has to offer intuitively, and to the best of my memory, for each player currently in the hand. Seconds before the flop hits, I have already thought of a great number of flops, and how I will procede in each case. The ability to figure out an accurate range and get your equity against it using combinatorics. The ability to do all of this while my eyes flick between different opponents constantly (live game), and I am subconciously gathering information about each of them as I calculate, varying my ranges and picking up long term reads.

While this is a laundry list of impossibilities, I think it offers some insight into how I want to think, and how I believe players better than me think. Notice that no where is "win money" noted, because +/- is only a somewhat related bi-product of how you're playing. At the very worst I could be happy if I could back up all of my previous decisions to the above specifications, and yet be down money. This is true because I'm not, nor will I ever be playing for a living. Just some insights while I'm sitting here at work waiting for code to compile ;)

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Maybe I should float some of these...

Weird session today. Very weird. Only got a mini session in (<200 hands) because the gf came home early from class. Either way, check out these ridiculous stats: 0% Went to Showdown, infinite aggression on the flop, infinite aggression on the river over 192 hands. Christ! I was hitting cards and made a lot of money, but then again I can't help feeling like I should be floating dry boards to extract. Yet people keep saying "ABC poker at NL25", so that's what I'll keep doing.

Maybe I'll get around to posting some of those hands later, when I'm not so lazy...

Can't complain either way, great night.

Session: +$27 -- 192 Hands
Overall: $518.45 -- +$231.60 -- 9412 hands

Monday, January 28, 2008

Doubts about making Ironman

I played a nice long session today (hand-wise and time-wise), but didn't get the FTPs I expected. I played 2 hours and 626 hands, (more hands than I expected), and got only 83 FTPs. That means that I may have to play closer to 2.5 hours a day for 20 days to get Ironman next month, which is a significant addition for me, as I get home from work at 6 and my girlfriend gets home at 7:45...

Anyway, I had the slowest and steadiest session I can remember having today (maybe that's partially the reason for the low FTPs). No interesting hands for the first hour and half, and then I pushed someone in with trip kings who called with a FD, and 3-barrel bluffed someone to lose about the same amount that I had gained against the FD. Fortunately KK ran into my AA to put me significantly up, rather than the $10 up I would have been otherwise. Too bad KK was a shortie!

My goal for January is to hit the 10K hand mark, so I can do some serious analysis heading into my February run for Ironman. I have also decided that I'll wait until I have $600 to take a 2buy-in shot at $50, which gives me some breathing room as I don't want to couple going for Ironman with taking my first shots at NL50.

Session: +$27 -- 626 Hands
Overall: $491.80 -- +$204.95 -- 9203 hands

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Good session returning online

Logging this many hands has definitely helped my game. I'm starting to gain an ability to understand flop texture every flop; and I can put people on more accurate ranges of hands now that I do this. Anyway I don't have anything concrete to say on the matter, so maybe I'll talk more about it another time.

Anyway, positive session, not much to say about it, and pretty tired. I decided to do a little research and see if I could make Ironman at Full Tilt next month. The requirements to make silver (my goal) are 100 points each day for 20 days of the month, 50 points each day for 25 days, or 200 points a day for 15 days. I'm going for the 100/20 deal, and so I figured out how many points I'm getting per hour of quad tabling NL25. The answer? 26.5 over 1 hour of testing. Seems that means 2 hours a day for 20 days next month, for a whopping total of 40 hours a month, which seems very possible. I also logged 500 hands in just over 2 hours quad tabling, so that will put me right on track for 10k hands next month. Good luck me!

Session: +$45 -- 501 Hands
Overall: $464.50 -- +$177.15 -- 8577 hands

Turning Stone Trip

I just got back from a Turning Stone Casino trip to New York. I played 1/2 NL with a 100 max (only a half stack) buy-in. I got very lucky and ended up +$348, and had KK run into my AA, QQ run into my KK, and took down KK with QQ once. I played for a total of 10 hours over two days, Friday night from 1:30 am to 4:30 am, and Saturday from 12-8 with an hour for food. The drunk people at my table Friday night were unbelievable; two guys sat across the table from me and continuously donated money to the pot. They called down just about every hand and played ridiculously.

I think I did well, and one play stuck out in my mind. Three limpers to me on the BT, I raise to 13 with ATo (I tend to play by the 4xBB+1xBB per limper, but a note on this later). One tight limper from MP calls. Flop comes 522 rainbow and he bets $10 into a $26 dollar pot, and I was planning on folding until I did some thinking. I put his range on 22-TT, 23s-56s or possibly Ax not giving me respect. I decided to float and hope for a scare card to come on the turn, and give him another chance to show me the value of his hand. The turn came a Q, giving a back door flush draw, and he bet $10 again, this time into a $46 pot. I thought this would be either a scared bet, or a please call me bet, and this guy was definitely capable of making a scared bet. I decided to pop it up to $25 to rep the queen, and because a huge portion of his range (mostly the 66-TT) was dominated by a queen. He promptly folded, and this was probably the only time that I made a play I had never made before.

About the PFR amount, I had noticed one player make 2 seperate raises from late position where he raised exactly 4xBB + 1xBB per limper. Surprisingly after playing with him for about 4 hours he was a pretty straight up TAG, and probably a 2p2er. That was what clued me in to varying my raise sizes a little, because that was such a large indicator for me to look for other hints, and it turned out paying off against him when I took a pot he CBed at IP with TP bad kicker (called and checked down, where I otherwise might have folded and he had high air). I also don't think that varying the size of the raise by $1 amounts changes much, and people at the casino seem to like to raise to odd numbers for some reason. No one raised to 8 PF. No one. 7, 11, or 13 were pretty much the only acceptable raises. In fact one time someone tossed in two reds, paused, and then said "9", as if he refused to be caught betting 10.

A great trip all in all, and happy to be up money.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Roller Coaster Session

Played my longest session yet tonight (quad tabling NL25), and figured out some interesting things. First of all, I was down $60 pretty early on, with one bad beat (not terrible, a flush hit with 2 cards to come) and lost my stack, and the other $35 was lost with poor river calls. There came a point where I was +$34, and then I was about even before my last hand of the night, where I filled up and won a $15 pot. The HUGE leak in my game right now is convincing myself to call gross river bets because "they're only 3/4 of the pot", when the pot is about 3/4 of a BUYIN.

I had an interesting thought about playing PP preflop tonight as well. My old strategy was to setmine 99- and limp or call a raise, given implied odds. I never would look at PFR of the villain who raised me when cold calling, I would just call and look to setup. I realized tonight that I would benefit from calling less when the PFR is high, and more when their PFR is low, which was contrary to what I intuitively thought. The reason is this: with a low PFR considering they're UTG to MP, I'm putting their range pretty tight, something like JJ+ AQ+. If this sounds overly tight to you, remember I'm saying someone with a low PFR. Now if I setup here, I have great implied odds, because JJ+ is going to pay off NICELY. If the villain's PFR was higher, maybe 10+, I would have to put him on a looser range, meaning he's going to be laying down a lot to my flop bet/raise when I setup, so I don't have implied odds.

Something else I learned reading the 2+2 forums earlier involves combinations. Consider this: you open raise to 4xBB from MP with AJo, and get 3bet from a tightie directly on your left. I would put him on a pretty tight range here, maybe QQ+ AQ+. I would generally fold here (because of the range), but lets say you call looking to hit an ace, and you do! How often are you good here? My old thinking would have said about 40/60, because he could have AQ, AK, QQ, KK, or AA, 2 of which you beat and 3 of which you lose to. However, enter combinatorics...

There are 6 ways to make AA, 6 to make KK, and 6 to make QQ. There are 16 ways to make AK, and 16 ways to make AQ. So total there are 18 ways to make QQ+ and 32 ways to make AQ+. This gives the villain roughly 12 hands you beat, and a whopping 38 you lose to, making you more of a 24/76 dog, as compared to my original guess, 40/60. Wow! (Please correct me if my math here is wrong...)

Anyway, here are my stats for the session (Luckily I cleared a bonus for $20, and note that only gets counted in the "overall" section for bankroll purposes):

Session: +$13 -- 756 Hands
Overall: $419.75 -- +$132.40 -- 8090 hands

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Another bad session

Another bad session, to make 2 in a row. I definitely have some glaring holes in my game though, this one can't be blamed on variance/beats like the last one can. I was up about $35 dollars with 20 minutes left in my session and then I blew about $65 to finish -$32 on the night.

One interesting point is I always seem to win before the fall... Maybe I am loosening up subconsciously while I'm winning?

My one major fault that I identified (which lost me a lot of money tonight) is calling river value bets. There are times when I am almost certain I'm beat, but I'm getting 3:1 or 4:1 to call, so I call with my TPGK. I think there are definitely times when you have to look at pot odds for calling river bets, but I'm calling too much. Basically I look at the pot and think, "Yeah, it's $5 but I'm getting 3.5:1 on my money, so how can I fold?" Well I should be able to fold because I'm getting 3.5:1 with less than 30% to win the hand... more like 2-10% in most situations. I think maybe it's time to break out the poker stove and go over some of these situations to see how off the calls were that I made.

In other news, I haven't been playing much because work takes up so much of my time, both physically and mentally. Even when I'm at home I'm thinking about what I'm working on at work, and I feel tired all the time. My new plan is to not stress out about poker for the rest of January, and come on hard in February trying to make Bronze Ironman. Wish me luck!

Session: -$32 -- 451 Hands
Overall: $386.95 -- +$119.60 -- 7332 hands
Blah! I never seem to have time for poker anymore. With my job ramping up, I've realized that 40 hour weeks TIRE YOU OUT. Not only that, but I've been travelling home most weekends to see my friends from umass, who are still on winter break. Also, my girlfriend got me a gamefly subscription for christmas, which is like netflix for video games, and I get video games mailed to me constantly. This leaves almost no time for poker, so I figure I will continue to post online and read forums, but take a little break for the rest of january. That way I can come back focused in the beginning of February to make a comeback, and hopefully make ironman.

In other gambling news, I may be making the 4 hour trip to Turning Stone Casino this weekend to play in the $1/$2 NL100 live games. It will be my fourth time to the casino, so wish me luck! Interesting that they spread 50xBB games, huh? Never really thought about that. I would play in a more standard game if I could, but my "bankroll" (spending money) couldn't really afford it. I obviously don't go enough to beat variance at this level, so I'm more interested in the live experience, which I don't get much of.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Bad session today. Begun by being up $20 and then lost it in 2 beats and a tilt call, which I should have folded. Don't feel like talking about it too much. Blah. At least after I made the call I stopped and recognized that I was playing poorly.

Then on a better note, I got $14 rakeback for my december play. It was lower than I had expected, but I realized that clearing my $200 deposit bonus takes away from my rakeback UNFORTUNATELY.

Session: -$36 -- 358 Hands
Overall: $418.75 -- +$151.00 -- 6869 hands

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Work isn't very "engrossing" right now, so most of the time is spent on the 2+2 forums.

Today I had a nice session where I ran hot early on, and then I think played poorly later on because of it. More on that later, but for now just some stats.

I might be buying into a $5 + $0.50 satellite which begins in 6 minutes, because The winner gets a seat at the $300 + $22 tournament in February, and there are only 22 people bought in... So I'm getting way more value on my money than I should. Basically if there were 60 entrants, it would be like a normal tournament, but because one seat is guaranteed, if there are under 40 players right before it starts I figure I'll buy-in.

EDIT: Turns out it was a REBUY tournament, and a big ass ADD-ON was allowed for another $5. That's how they get you, but luckily I unregistered in time.

Session: +$9 -- 361 Hands
Overall: $440.35 -- +$187.00 -- 6521 hands

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

First Session today in a while as I started my full time Job yesterday for Art Technology Group in Boston. I'm sooooo tired after my xmas break sleeping schedule of 5 am - 2 pm... it's really fucked me up. ATG is a Ecommerce software development company, which works with companies to create online stores; check it out here www.atg.com. I'm an OnDemand Software Developer, or that's my official title anyways.

Back to poker. I had a split up session today because after 100 hands I forgot I was skating at frog pond today, and had to run out the door to avoid being late. But I datamined and kept 16 tables open, and they were waiting for me on my return.

I didn't have a great session today, but I feel that I played well overall. The worst beat is posted at the bottom of this session, and I feel that being down less than half a buy-in is pretty much like being even ;). By the way they had a combined 1 out (excluding runner runner outs) below. What hand can you think of to say THAT?!?

I plan on playing about 2 hours a day with my new work schedule, so we'll see how that goes...


Here's the worst beat from my (Thank god they were short stacked!!!)

FullTiltPoker Game #4790416158: Table Converse - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:24:21 ET - 2008/01/08
Seat 1: jambam1 ($28.65)
Seat 2: Meteoric ($11.25)
Seat 3: dimitzio ($25.95)
Seat 4: fluffys brother ($17.70)
Seat 5: youblow1 ($21.65)
Seat 6: b3fund ($6.25)
Seat 7: hackers238 ($24.15)
Seat 8: Soul At Zero ($9.25)
Seat 9: NoVegasForMe ($6.95)
youblow1 posts the small blind of $0.10
b3fund posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hackers238 [6c 6s]
hackers238 calls $0.25
Soul At Zero folds
NoVegasForMe calls $0.25
jambam1 folds
Meteoric folds
dimitzio folds
fluffys brother folds
youblow1 folds
b3fund raises to $0.75
hackers238 calls $0.50
NoVegasForMe has 15 seconds left to act
NoVegasForMe calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [Tc 2d 6h]
b3fund bets $2.35
hackers238 has 15 seconds left to act
hackers238 calls $2.35
NoVegasForMe has 15 seconds left to act
NoVegasForMe raises to $6.20, and is all in
b3fund calls $3.15, and is all in
hackers238 calls $3.85
NoVegasForMe shows [Th Ah]
b3fund shows [Ts Ac]
hackers238 shows [6c 6s]
*** TURN *** [Tc 2d 6h] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [Tc 2d 6h Qh] [7h]
NoVegasForMe shows a flush, Ace high
hackers238 shows three of a kind, Sixes
NoVegasForMe wins the side pot ($1.30) with a flush, Ace high
b3fund shows a pair of Tens
NoVegasForMe wins the main pot ($17.95) with a flush, Ace high
b3fund is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $20.25 Main pot $18.85. Side pot $1.40. | Rake $1
Board: [Tc 2d 6h Qh 7h]
Seat 1: jambam1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Meteoric didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: dimitzio didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: fluffys brother (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: youblow1 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: b3fund (big blind) showed [Ts Ac] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 7: hackers238 showed [6c 6s] and lost with three of a kind, Sixes
Seat 8: Soul At Zero didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: NoVegasForMe showed [Th Ah] and won ($19.25) with a flush, Ace high


Session: -$5 -- 476 Hands
Overall: $431.45 -- +$177.85 -- 6160 hands

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Girlfriend played for a while...

So I bought my GF into a 50 FTP satellite, with the intention of playing it together for an hour. 8 Hands later we were left on our asses after AA lost to 24hh with an all in PF, and KK got cracked by T6o on a T62 flop, where about 1/3 stack went in PF and the other on the flop. Good thing we got rid of our bad luck in an FTP tourney right? ;)

So after that we decided to play 5/10 NL for a while... (.05/.10... did you buy it for a second?)

Either way I'm updating my total here (down a couple bucks), but I'm purging the hands from my database as I don't consider them part of my 10K hand goal. More updates when I post a real session!

Overall: $436.80 -- +$183.20 -- 5672 hands

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Caro's book of Tells, and a ramble

I can only imagine how fast bonuses must be cleared by higher stakes players. But for me, it still takes hours and hours of quad tabling NL25 for that $20. If I was playing higher stakes though, I suppose $20 wouldn't mean quite as much. Either way, I cleared my third $20 bonus today (of which I get 10 off of my $200 deposit).

Clearing a bonus is always a good mood lifter. You can be having a bad session and clear a bonus, and suddenly you're out of the red and into the black (if only technically)

My session today was fairly standard, in that I found little I wondered about as I played. That's not to say that I played perfectly; far from it, but I had justification in my head about all bets and bet sizes, and never just click without thinking anymore. (Barring one mouse error which cost me about $10).

I also made an interesting discovery today: I borrowed a book from a friend who has always been a wild (and bad) poker player. "Caro's book of Poker Tells" was the title. At first I was skeptical. First off, I'm an internet player other than the local home-games formed by college kids for low stakes (Generally NL10), and therefore don't have much use for physical tells. Secondly, I have always been wary of books preaching to be the "psychological guide" to poker, as most of them just sound like fluff. Who knows, maybe I'm just not at a level where their advanced psychoanalysis makes sense, but to me it just sounds like bullshit.

However on opening the book, the first line changed all my thoughts about it: "Once you've mastered the basic elements of a winning poker formula, psychology becomes the key ingredient in seperating break-even players from players who win consistently". What a disclaimer! It basically states that this entire book requires that you have "mastered the basic elements of a winning poker formula". If novices took this disclaimer at face value, none of them would buy this book. And thus I can somewhat see how my friend is such a wild player, as he most likely lacks the mathematics behind ABC poker, and is playing entirely on tells. I did end up reading the book, and found it very interesting and potentially useful (we'll see at my next live game...). I am not bashing its quality in any way, but I do want to say that this book is a DEATHTRAP for novices like myself. I feel like I should go with math 95% of the time and my people reading skills 5% of the time at this point. Technically a perfect player would be going on their tells 100% of the time, as they would always be right. I wonder if the math % continues to decrease and reading % increase as you increase in skill with live poker?

Anyways, I got a little off topic, but my session was good and I cleared a bonus, so I'm in a good mood.


Session: +$50 -- 661 Hands
Overall: $438.15 -- +$183.20 -- 5672 hands