Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Don't feel so bad about winning mildly Feb

Well, I had been feeling pretty down about my Feb winrate, because it's only about 1 ptBB/100, which is very low. Don't get me wrong, at least it's winning, but it's nowhere near where I thought I would be. In December I played 5000 hands and beat the game for 5 ptBB/100, in January I think off of the top of my head (don't have PT here at work) it was 4 ptBB/100 over 6000 hands, and so far in Feb I've played 11000+ hands and its sitting at 1 ptBB/100. Frankly I was worrying if I was just running hot, and truly I'm more of a break even player.

Then I downloaded the setometer, which shows how often you hit sets as compared to how often you should. It also shows a couple of other metrics, like how many times your AA went against KK and how many times your KK ran into AA. Below is my graph:



Basically, if thre are equal parts blue and red, you're hitting about as many sets as you should. If there is more blue then you're getting lucky, and hitting more sets than you should. However in my case, I'm hitting far fewer sets than I should. It seems I've hit 44 sets when I should have hit 60. That's 16 sets worth of profit I'm missing out on! Not only that, but just one or two stacks (which I feel I can count on with 16 sets) would significantly improve my winrate.

Add to that the fact that I've had AA and hit villains KK preflop once, and he drew out to his K for a full stack, and I don't feel quite as bad about 1 ptBB/100. Hell, at least I'm up!

No comments: